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Deportivo Armenio vs Deportivo Merlo — Primera B Metropolitana 2026

Deportivo Armenio
Deportivo Armenio
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Deportivo Merlo
Deportivo Merlo
2/10/2024Primera B MetropolitanaPrimera B Metropolitana · Apertura - 2Estadio Armenia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Deportivo Armenio43%
×Draw29%
Deportivo Merlo28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Armenio
1.22
Deportivo Merlo
0.91

Deportivo Armenio creates 34% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 103 away

creates per match

Deportivo Armenio
1.19
Deportivo Merlo
0.92

allows per match

Deportivo Armenio
0.90
Deportivo Merlo
1.25

finishing

Deportivo Armenio+0.00on par
Deportivo Merlo+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Armenio ↓

Deportivo Merlo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Deportivo Armenio or draw
72%
Deportivo Armenio or Deportivo Merlo
71%
Draw or Deportivo Merlo
57%

Winning margin

Deportivo Armenio wins by 2+
19%
Deportivo Merlo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Deportivo Armenio 1+ goals
70%
Deportivo Armenio 2+ goals
34%
Deportivo Armenio 3+ goals
12%
Deportivo Merlo 1+ goals
60%
Deportivo Merlo 2+ goals
23%
Deportivo Merlo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Armenio (draw refunded)
61%
Deportivo Merlo (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Armenio at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.90 · 125 matches

Deportivo Merlo away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.25 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Armenio attack 1.19 + Deportivo Merlo defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.22

Deportivo Merlo attack 0.92 + Deportivo Armenio defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Deportivo Armenio scores more
43%
level
29%
Deportivo Merlo scores more
28%

Deportivo Armenio at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Deportivo Armenio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B Metropolitana: Deportivo Armenio 2–0 Deportivo Merlo

Deportivo Armenio beat Deportivo Merlo 2-0 in Primera B Metropolitana on February 10, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Armenia in Ingeniero Maschwitz, Provincia de Buenos Aires.