Deportivo Merlo vs Brown DE Adrogue — Primera B Metropolitana 2025
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 34+ matches
Deportivo Merlo33%
Brown DE Adrogue35%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 40 home / 34 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under70
- Over30
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No62
- Yes38
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Deportivo Merlo ↓
Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Deportivo Merlo at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.05 · 40 matches
Brown DE Adrogue away — creates 0.88, concedes 0.94 · 34 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Deportivo Merlo attack 0.95 + Brown DE Adrogue defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.94
Brown DE Adrogue attack 0.88 + Deportivo Merlo defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.97
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 35%?"
Brown DE Adrogue at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 35% does not mean "Brown DE Adrogue will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Deportivo Laferrere
Villa Dalmine
Sportivo Italiano
Deportivo Camioneros
Arsenal Sarandi
San Martín Burzaco
Deportivo Armenio
Talleres Remedios
Argentino de Merlo
Dock Sud
Villa San Carlos
Real PilarDeportivo Merlo
Comunicaciones
Flandria
Excursionistas
Argentino QuilmesBrown DE Adrogue
UAI Urquiza
Liniers
Ituzaingó
Defensores UnidosIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Deportivo Merlo host Brown DE Adrogue on Saturday, 5 April 2025 at 22:05. The match is part of the Primera B Metropolitana 2025/2026 season.
Primera B Metropolitana: Deportivo Merlo 0–1 Brown DE Adrogue
Brown DE Adrogue beat Deportivo Merlo 1-0 in Primera B Metropolitana on April 5, 2025.
Goals: M. Sproat (25').
The match was played at Jose Manuel Moreno Stadium in Buenos Aires.