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Brown DE Adrogue vs Deportivo Merlo — Primera B Metropolitana 2025

Brown DE Adrogue
Brown DE Adrogue
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Deportivo Merlo
Deportivo Merlo
M. Brito 80'
A. Quintana 36', 10'
8/29/2015Primera B MetropolitanaPrimera B Metropolitana · Round 31Estadio Lorenzo Arandilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Brown DE Adrogue42%
×Draw30%
Deportivo Merlo28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brown DE Adrogue
1.17
Deportivo Merlo
0.90

Brown DE Adrogue creates 30% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 39 away

creates per match

Brown DE Adrogue
1.00
Deportivo Merlo
0.77

allows per match

Brown DE Adrogue
1.03
Deportivo Merlo
1.33

finishing

Brown DE Adrogue+0.00on par
Deportivo Merlo+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brown DE Adrogue ↓

Deportivo Merlo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Brown DE Adrogue or draw
72%
Brown DE Adrogue or Deportivo Merlo
70%
Draw or Deportivo Merlo
58%

Winning margin

Brown DE Adrogue wins by 2+
18%
Deportivo Merlo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Brown DE Adrogue 1+ goals
69%
Brown DE Adrogue 2+ goals
33%
Brown DE Adrogue 3+ goals
11%
Deportivo Merlo 1+ goals
59%
Deportivo Merlo 2+ goals
23%
Deportivo Merlo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Brown DE Adrogue (draw refunded)
60%
Deportivo Merlo (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brown DE Adrogue at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.03 · 36 matches

Deportivo Merlo away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.33 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brown DE Adrogue attack 1.00 + Deportivo Merlo defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Deportivo Merlo attack 0.77 + Brown DE Adrogue defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Brown DE Adrogue scores more
42%
level
30%
Deportivo Merlo scores more
28%

Brown DE Adrogue at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Brown DE Adrogue will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
A. Quintana
36'
A. Quintana
80'
M. Brito

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brown DE Adrogue 3 – 0 Deportivo Merlo

Brown DE Adrogue beat Deportivo Merlo 3-0 in Primera B Metropolitana on August 29, 2015.

Goals: A. Quintana (10', 36'), M. Brito (80').

The match was played at Estadio Lorenzo Arandilla in Almirante Brown, Provincia de Buenos Aires.