Deportivo Maldonado 2–1 CA River Plate

Deportivo Maldonado

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

CA River Plate

5/7/2022

Primera División - Apertura · Apertura - 11Estadio Domingo Burgueño Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Deportivo Maldonado43%

×Draw28%

CA River Plate29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo MaldonadoExpected goals in this matchCA River Plate

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.03

Deportivo Maldonado

1.32

CA River Plate

1.03

Deportivo Maldonado creates 28% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 73 away

1.16

creates per match

0.93

1.13

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Deportivo Maldonado

1.16

CA River Plate

0.93

allows per match

Deportivo Maldonado

1.13

CA River Plate

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Maldonado+0.00on par

CA River Plate+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Maldonado ↓

CA River Plate →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Deportivo Maldonado or draw

71%

Deportivo Maldonado or CA River Plate

72%

Draw or CA River Plate

57%

Winning margin

Deportivo Maldonado wins by 2+

20%

CA River Plate wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Deportivo Maldonado 1+ goals

73%

Deportivo Maldonado 2+ goals

38%

Deportivo Maldonado 3+ goals

15%

CA River Plate 1+ goals

64%

CA River Plate 2+ goals

28%

CA River Plate 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Maldonado (draw refunded)

60%

CA River Plate (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Maldonado at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.13 · 55 matches

CA River Plate away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.49 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Maldonado attack 1.16 + CA River Plate defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.32

CA River Plate attack 0.93 + Deportivo Maldonado defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Deportivo Maldonado scores more

43%

level

28%

CA River Plate scores more

29%

Deportivo Maldonado at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Deportivo Maldonado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff