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CA River Plate vs Deportivo Maldonado — Primera División - Apertura 2026

CA River Plate
CA River Plate
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Deportivo Maldonado
Deportivo Maldonado
2/23/2024Primera División - AperturaPrimera División - Apertura · Apertura - 2Parque Federico Omar Saroldi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

CA River Plate44%
×Draw25%
Deportivo Maldonado30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CA River Plate
1.51
Deportivo Maldonado
1.20

CA River Plate creates 26% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 61 away

creates per match

CA River Plate
1.53
Deportivo Maldonado
1.16

allows per match

CA River Plate
1.24
Deportivo Maldonado
1.49

finishing

CA River Plate+0.00on par
Deportivo Maldonado+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CA River Plate ↓

Deportivo Maldonado →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

CA River Plate or draw
70%
CA River Plate or Deportivo Maldonado
75%
Draw or Deportivo Maldonado
56%

Winning margin

CA River Plate wins by 2+
22%
Deportivo Maldonado wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

CA River Plate 1+ goals
78%
CA River Plate 2+ goals
44%
CA River Plate 3+ goals
19%
Deportivo Maldonado 1+ goals
70%
Deportivo Maldonado 2+ goals
34%
Deportivo Maldonado 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

CA River Plate (draw refunded)
59%
Deportivo Maldonado (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CA River Plate at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.24 · 72 matches

Deportivo Maldonado away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.49 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CA River Plate attack 1.53 + Deportivo Maldonado defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.51

Deportivo Maldonado attack 1.16 + CA River Plate defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

CA River Plate scores more
44%
level
25%
Deportivo Maldonado scores more
30%

CA River Plate at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "CA River Plate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División - Apertura: CA River Plate 3–1 Deportivo Maldonado

CA River Plate beat Deportivo Maldonado 3-1 in Primera División - Apertura on February 23, 2024.

The match was played at Parque Federico Omar Saroldi in Montevideo.