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Deportivo Maldonado vs Boston River — Primera División - Apertura 2018

Deportivo Maldonado
Deportivo Maldonado
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Boston River
Boston River
5/11/2026Primera División - AperturaPrimera División - Apertura · Apertura - 15Estadio Domingo Burgueno Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Deportivo Maldonado39%
×Draw28%
Boston River32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Maldonado
1.21
Boston River
1.07

Deportivo Maldonado creates 13% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 82 away

creates per match

Deportivo Maldonado
1.16
Boston River
1.02

allows per match

Deportivo Maldonado
1.13
Boston River
1.27

finishing

Deportivo Maldonado+0.00on par
Boston River+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Maldonado ↓

Boston River →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Deportivo Maldonado or draw
68%
Deportivo Maldonado or Boston River
72%
Draw or Boston River
61%

Winning margin

Deportivo Maldonado wins by 2+
17%
Boston River wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Deportivo Maldonado 1+ goals
70%
Deportivo Maldonado 2+ goals
34%
Deportivo Maldonado 3+ goals
12%
Boston River 1+ goals
66%
Boston River 2+ goals
29%
Boston River 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Maldonado (draw refunded)
55%
Boston River (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Maldonado at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.13 · 55 matches

Boston River away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.27 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Maldonado attack 1.16 + Boston River defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.21

Boston River attack 1.02 + Deportivo Maldonado defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Deportivo Maldonado scores more
39%
level
28%
Boston River scores more
32%

Deportivo Maldonado at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Deportivo Maldonado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Maldonado vs Boston River

Deportivo Maldonado beat Boston River 2-1 in Primera División - Apertura on May 11, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Domingo Burgueno Miguel in Maldonado.