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Boston River vs Deportivo Maldonado — Primera División - Apertura 2018

Boston River
Boston River
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Deportivo Maldonado
Deportivo Maldonado
4/24/2022Primera División - AperturaPrimera División - Apertura · Apertura - 10Estadio Juan Antonio Lavalleja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Boston River39%
×Draw27%
Deportivo Maldonado34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boston River
1.33
Deportivo Maldonado
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 61 away

creates per match

Boston River
1.18
Deportivo Maldonado
1.16

allows per match

Boston River
1.29
Deportivo Maldonado
1.49

finishing

Boston River+0.00on par
Deportivo Maldonado+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boston River ↓

Deportivo Maldonado →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Boston River or draw
66%
Boston River or Deportivo Maldonado
73%
Draw or Deportivo Maldonado
61%

Winning margin

Boston River wins by 2+
18%
Deportivo Maldonado wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Boston River 1+ goals
74%
Boston River 2+ goals
38%
Boston River 3+ goals
15%
Deportivo Maldonado 1+ goals
71%
Deportivo Maldonado 2+ goals
35%
Deportivo Maldonado 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Boston River (draw refunded)
53%
Deportivo Maldonado (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boston River at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.29 · 85 matches

Deportivo Maldonado away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.49 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boston River attack 1.18 + Deportivo Maldonado defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.33

Deportivo Maldonado attack 1.16 + Boston River defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Boston River scores more
39%
level
27%
Deportivo Maldonado scores more
34%

Boston River at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Boston River will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Boston River vs Deportivo Maldonado

Boston River beat Deportivo Maldonado 2-0 in Primera División - Apertura on April 24, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Antonio Lavalleja in Minas.