Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Deportivo Maldonado vs Artigas — Segunda División 2025

Deportivo Maldonado
Deportivo Maldonado
FT
6 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Artigas
Artigas
E. de Leon 89'
S. Cartagena 72'
M. Espindola 60'
A. M. Noble Sequeira 54', 50'
R. Cesar 26'
Unknown 11'
10/5/2025Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · 2nd Phase - 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Deportivo Maldonado48%
×Draw27%
Artigas26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Maldonado
1.45
Artigas
0.99

Deportivo Maldonado creates 46% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 15 away

creates per match

Deportivo Maldonado
1.37
Artigas
1.20

allows per match

Deportivo Maldonado
0.79
Artigas
1.53

finishing

Deportivo Maldonado+0.00on par
Artigas+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Maldonado ↓

Artigas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Deportivo Maldonado or draw
74%
Deportivo Maldonado or Artigas
73%
Draw or Artigas
52%

Winning margin

Deportivo Maldonado wins by 2+
24%
Artigas wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Deportivo Maldonado 1+ goals
77%
Deportivo Maldonado 2+ goals
42%
Deportivo Maldonado 3+ goals
18%
Artigas 1+ goals
63%
Artigas 2+ goals
26%
Artigas 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Maldonado (draw refunded)
65%
Artigas (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Maldonado at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.79 · 19 matches

Artigas away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Maldonado attack 1.37 + Artigas defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.45

Artigas attack 1.20 + Deportivo Maldonado defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Deportivo Maldonado scores more
48%
level
27%
Artigas scores more
26%

Deportivo Maldonado at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Deportivo Maldonado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
26'
R. Cesar
50'
A. M. Noble Sequeira
54'
A. M. Noble Sequeira
60'
M. Espindola
69'
72'
S. Cartagena
89'
E. de Leon

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Maldonado vs Artigas

Deportivo Maldonado beat Artigas 6-1 in Segunda División on October 5, 2025.

Goals: ? (11'), R. Cesar (26'), A. M. Noble Sequeira (50', 54'), M. Espindola (60'), S. Cartagena (72'), E. de Leon (89').