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Artigas vs Deportivo Maldonado — Segunda División 2025

Artigas
Artigas
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Deportivo Maldonado
Deportivo Maldonado
Unknown 75'
A. M. Noble Sequeira 28'
7/12/2025Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · 2nd Phase - 10Estadio Atilio Paiva Olivera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Artigas26%
×Draw26%
Deportivo Maldonado48%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Artigas
0.99
Deportivo Maldonado
1.46

Deportivo Maldonado creates 47% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 21 away

creates per match

Artigas
1.13
Deportivo Maldonado
1.05

allows per match

Artigas
1.88
Deportivo Maldonado
0.86

finishing

Artigas+0.00on par
Deportivo Maldonado+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Artigas ↓

Deportivo Maldonado →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Artigas or draw
52%
Artigas or Deportivo Maldonado
74%
Draw or Deportivo Maldonado
74%

Winning margin

Artigas wins by 2+
9%
Deportivo Maldonado wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Artigas 1+ goals
63%
Artigas 2+ goals
26%
Artigas 3+ goals
8%
Deportivo Maldonado 1+ goals
77%
Deportivo Maldonado 2+ goals
43%
Deportivo Maldonado 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Artigas (draw refunded)
35%
Deportivo Maldonado (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Artigas at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

Deportivo Maldonado away — creates 1.05, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Artigas attack 1.13 + Deportivo Maldonado defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.99

Deportivo Maldonado attack 1.05 + Artigas defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Artigas scores more
26%
level
26%
Deportivo Maldonado scores more
48%

Deportivo Maldonado at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Deportivo Maldonado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'
A. M. Noble Sequeira
75'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Artigas vs Deportivo Maldonado

Artigas and Deportivo Maldonado drew 1-1 in Segunda División on July 12, 2025.

Goals: A. M. Noble Sequeira (28'), ? (75').

The match was played at Estadio Atilio Paiva Olivera in Rivera.