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Deportivo Maipu vs Arsenal Sarandi — Primera Nacional 2026

Deportivo Maipu
Deportivo Maipu
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Arsenal Sarandi
Arsenal Sarandi
7/7/2024Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 22Estadio Omar Higinio Sperdutti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Deportivo Maipu49%
×Draw29%
Arsenal Sarandi23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Maipu
1.29
Arsenal Sarandi
0.78

Deportivo Maipu creates 65% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 49 away

creates per match

Deportivo Maipu
1.19
Arsenal Sarandi
0.71

allows per match

Deportivo Maipu
0.86
Arsenal Sarandi
1.39

finishing

Deportivo Maipu+0.00on par
Arsenal Sarandi+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Maipu ↓

Arsenal Sarandi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Deportivo Maipu or draw
77%
Deportivo Maipu or Arsenal Sarandi
71%
Draw or Arsenal Sarandi
51%

Winning margin

Deportivo Maipu wins by 2+
23%
Arsenal Sarandi wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Deportivo Maipu 1+ goals
72%
Deportivo Maipu 2+ goals
37%
Deportivo Maipu 3+ goals
14%
Arsenal Sarandi 1+ goals
54%
Arsenal Sarandi 2+ goals
18%
Arsenal Sarandi 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Maipu (draw refunded)
68%
Arsenal Sarandi (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Maipu at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.86 · 102 matches

Arsenal Sarandi away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.39 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Maipu attack 1.19 + Arsenal Sarandi defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.29

Arsenal Sarandi attack 0.71 + Deportivo Maipu defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Deportivo Maipu scores more
49%
level
29%
Arsenal Sarandi scores more
23%

Deportivo Maipu at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Deportivo Maipu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Maipu vs Arsenal Sarandi

Deportivo Maipu beat Arsenal Sarandi 1-0 in Primera Nacional on July 7, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Omar Higinio Sperdutti in Maipú, Provincia de Mendoza.