Arsenal Sarandi 2–0 Deportivo Maipu: Result & Stats

Arsenal Sarandi

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Deportivo Maipu

2/18/2024

Primera Nacional · Round 3Estadio Julio Humberto Grondona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Arsenal Sarandi46%

×Draw30%

Deportivo Maipu25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arsenal SarandiExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Maipu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.82

Arsenal Sarandi

1.23

Deportivo Maipu

0.82

Arsenal Sarandi creates 50% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 100 away

1.27

creates per match

0.94

0.71

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Arsenal Sarandi

1.27

Deportivo Maipu

0.94

allows per match

Arsenal Sarandi

0.71

Deportivo Maipu

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arsenal Sarandi+0.00on par

Deportivo Maipu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal Sarandi ↓

Deportivo Maipu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Arsenal Sarandi or draw

75%

Arsenal Sarandi or Deportivo Maipu

70%

Draw or Deportivo Maipu

54%

Winning margin

Arsenal Sarandi wins by 2+

20%

Deportivo Maipu wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Arsenal Sarandi 1+ goals

71%

Arsenal Sarandi 2+ goals

35%

Arsenal Sarandi 3+ goals

13%

Deportivo Maipu 1+ goals

56%

Deportivo Maipu 2+ goals

20%

Deportivo Maipu 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Arsenal Sarandi (draw refunded)

65%

Deportivo Maipu (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal Sarandi at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.71 · 48 matches

Deportivo Maipu away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.18 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal Sarandi attack 1.27 + Deportivo Maipu defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.23

Deportivo Maipu attack 0.94 + Arsenal Sarandi defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Arsenal Sarandi scores more

46%

level

30%

Deportivo Maipu scores more

25%

Arsenal Sarandi at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Arsenal Sarandi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff