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Deportivo Llacuabamba vs Deportivo Municipal — Primera División 2018

Deportivo Llacuabamba
Deportivo Llacuabamba
PST
20:00
Deportivo Municipal
Deportivo Municipal
9/16/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Deportivo Llacuabamba35%
×Draw24%
Deportivo Municipal41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Llacuabamba
1.50
Deportivo Municipal
1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 102 away

creates per match

Deportivo Llacuabamba
1.27
Deportivo Municipal
1.25

allows per match

Deportivo Llacuabamba
2.00
Deportivo Municipal
1.73

finishing

Deportivo Llacuabamba+0.00on par
Deportivo Municipal+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Llacuabamba ↓

Deportivo Municipal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Deportivo Llacuabamba or draw
59%
Deportivo Llacuabamba or Deportivo Municipal
76%
Draw or Deportivo Municipal
65%

Winning margin

Deportivo Llacuabamba wins by 2+
17%
Deportivo Municipal wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Deportivo Llacuabamba 1+ goals
78%
Deportivo Llacuabamba 2+ goals
44%
Deportivo Llacuabamba 3+ goals
19%
Deportivo Municipal 1+ goals
80%
Deportivo Municipal 2+ goals
48%
Deportivo Municipal 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Llacuabamba (draw refunded)
46%
Deportivo Municipal (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Llacuabamba at home — creates 1.27, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

Deportivo Municipal away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.73 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Llacuabamba attack 1.27 + Deportivo Municipal defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.50

Deportivo Municipal attack 1.25 + Deportivo Llacuabamba defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Deportivo Llacuabamba scores more
35%
level
24%
Deportivo Municipal scores more
41%

Deportivo Municipal at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Deportivo Municipal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Deportivo Llacuabamba host Deportivo Municipal

September 16, 2020: Deportivo Llacuabamba take on Deportivo Municipal in Primera División. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.