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Deportivo Llacuabamba vs Alfonso Ugarte Puno — Segunda División 2018

Deportivo Llacuabamba
Deportivo Llacuabamba
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Alfonso Ugarte Puno
Alfonso Ugarte Puno
4/16/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 1Estadio Municipal Otuzco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Deportivo Llacuabamba63%
×Draw20%
Alfonso Ugarte Puno16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Llacuabamba
2.08
Alfonso Ugarte Puno
0.95

Deportivo Llacuabamba creates 119% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 25 away

creates per match

Deportivo Llacuabamba
2.00
Alfonso Ugarte Puno
0.96

allows per match

Deportivo Llacuabamba
0.94
Alfonso Ugarte Puno
2.16

finishing

Deportivo Llacuabamba+0.00on par
Alfonso Ugarte Puno+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Llacuabamba ↓

Alfonso Ugarte Puno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Deportivo Llacuabamba or draw
84%
Deportivo Llacuabamba or Alfonso Ugarte Puno
80%
Draw or Alfonso Ugarte Puno
37%

Winning margin

Deportivo Llacuabamba wins by 2+
39%
Alfonso Ugarte Puno wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Deportivo Llacuabamba 1+ goals
87%
Deportivo Llacuabamba 2+ goals
61%
Deportivo Llacuabamba 3+ goals
34%
Alfonso Ugarte Puno 1+ goals
61%
Alfonso Ugarte Puno 2+ goals
25%
Alfonso Ugarte Puno 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Llacuabamba (draw refunded)
79%
Alfonso Ugarte Puno (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Llacuabamba at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.94 · 62 matches

Alfonso Ugarte Puno away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.16 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Llacuabamba attack 2.00 + Alfonso Ugarte Puno defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.08

Alfonso Ugarte Puno attack 0.96 + Deportivo Llacuabamba defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Deportivo Llacuabamba scores more
63%
level
20%
Alfonso Ugarte Puno scores more
16%

Deportivo Llacuabamba at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Deportivo Llacuabamba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Deportivo Llacuabamba 1–1 Alfonso Ugarte Puno

Deportivo Llacuabamba and Alfonso Ugarte Puno drew 1-1 in Segunda División on April 16, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Otuzco in Otuzco.