Alfonso Ugarte Puno vs Deportivo Llacuabamba — Segunda División 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 25+ matches
Alfonso Ugarte Puno55%
Deportivo Llacuabamba21%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Alfonso Ugarte Puno creates 79% more chances
Season form · 25 home / 61 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over51
- Under49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Alfonso Ugarte Puno ↓
Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Alfonso Ugarte Puno at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.92 · 25 matches
Deportivo Llacuabamba away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.66 · 61 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Alfonso Ugarte Puno attack 1.84 + Deportivo Llacuabamba defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.75
Deportivo Llacuabamba attack 1.03 + Alfonso Ugarte Puno defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.98
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 55%?"
Alfonso Ugarte Puno at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 55% does not mean "Alfonso Ugarte Puno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Union ComercioDeportivo Llacuabamba
UCV Moquegua
Comerciantes
Molinos El Pirata
Bentín Tacna Heroica
Santos
Cesar Vallejo
FC Cajamarca
Carlos A. Mannucci
U. San Martin
Deportiva Agropecuaria
Academia Cantolao
Deportivo Coopsol
Alianza Universidad
Sport Huancayo 2
Ayacucho FC
Estudiantil CNI
Minas
Deportivo Binacional
San MarcosIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Alfonso Ugarte Puno host Deportivo Llacuabamba on Wednesday, 12 July 2023 at 20:15. The match is part of the Segunda División 2018/2019 season.
Segunda División: Alfonso Ugarte Puno 4–0 Deportivo Llacuabamba
Alfonso Ugarte Puno beat Deportivo Llacuabamba 4-0 in Segunda División on July 12, 2023.
The match was played at Estadio Rómulo Shaw Cisneros in Chancay.