Deportivo Llacuabamba 3–1 Academia Cantolao

Deportivo Llacuabamba

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Academia Cantolao

Á. Olaya 61'

M. Velasco 45+1'

J. Bustamante 44'

J. Quintero 5'

2/9/2020

Primera División · Apertura - 2Estadio Héroes de San Ramón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Deportivo Llacuabamba39%

×Draw25%

Academia Cantolao37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo LlacuabambaExpected goals in this matchAcademia Cantolao

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.45

Deportivo Llacuabamba

1.50

Academia Cantolao

1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 95 away

1.27

creates per match

0.89

2.00

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Deportivo Llacuabamba

1.27

Academia Cantolao

0.89

allows per match

Deportivo Llacuabamba

2.00

Academia Cantolao

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Llacuabamba+0.00on par

Academia Cantolao+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Llacuabamba ↓

Academia Cantolao →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Deportivo Llacuabamba or draw

63%

Deportivo Llacuabamba or Academia Cantolao

75%

Draw or Academia Cantolao

61%

Winning margin

Deportivo Llacuabamba wins by 2+

19%

Academia Cantolao wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Deportivo Llacuabamba 1+ goals

78%

Deportivo Llacuabamba 2+ goals

44%

Deportivo Llacuabamba 3+ goals

19%

Academia Cantolao 1+ goals

77%

Academia Cantolao 2+ goals

42%

Academia Cantolao 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Llacuabamba (draw refunded)

51%

Academia Cantolao (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Llacuabamba at home — creates 1.27, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

Academia Cantolao away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.72 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Llacuabamba attack 1.27 + Academia Cantolao defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.50

Academia Cantolao attack 0.89 + Deportivo Llacuabamba defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Deportivo Llacuabamba scores more

39%

level

25%

Academia Cantolao scores more

37%

Deportivo Llacuabamba at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Deportivo Llacuabamba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

M. Ramírez

Deportivo Llacuabamba

8.8

Match Events

5'

40'

44'

44'

44'

45+1'

60'

M. Calderón← A. Sánchez

60'

M. Ceballos← J. D´Arrigo

61'

Á. Olaya

65'

S. La Torre← J. Quintero

74'

J. Viza← J. Portocarrero

79'

Mario Tajima

80'

C. Adrianzén← M. Velasco

80'

E. Sanes← J. Castillo

81'

Junior Viza

90'

Mario Tajima

90'

Mario Tajima

Statistics

DeportivoAcademia

Overview

10Corners6