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Academia Cantolao vs Deportivo Llacuabamba — Segunda División 2026

Academia Cantolao
Academia Cantolao
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Deportivo Llacuabamba
Deportivo Llacuabamba
M. Gutierrez 31'
9/20/2025Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Relegation Round - 10Estadio Miguel Grau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Academia Cantolao42%
×Draw27%
Deportivo Llacuabamba32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Academia Cantolao
1.38
Deportivo Llacuabamba
1.16

Academia Cantolao creates 19% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 62 away

creates per match

Academia Cantolao
1.10
Deportivo Llacuabamba
1.02

allows per match

Academia Cantolao
1.30
Deportivo Llacuabamba
1.65

finishing

Academia Cantolao+0.00on par
Deportivo Llacuabamba+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Academia Cantolao ↓

Deportivo Llacuabamba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Academia Cantolao or draw
68%
Academia Cantolao or Deportivo Llacuabamba
73%
Draw or Deportivo Llacuabamba
58%

Winning margin

Academia Cantolao wins by 2+
20%
Deportivo Llacuabamba wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Academia Cantolao 1+ goals
75%
Academia Cantolao 2+ goals
40%
Academia Cantolao 3+ goals
16%
Deportivo Llacuabamba 1+ goals
69%
Deportivo Llacuabamba 2+ goals
32%
Deportivo Llacuabamba 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Academia Cantolao (draw refunded)
57%
Deportivo Llacuabamba (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Academia Cantolao at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.30 · 30 matches

Deportivo Llacuabamba away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.65 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Academia Cantolao attack 1.10 + Deportivo Llacuabamba defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.38

Deportivo Llacuabamba attack 1.02 + Academia Cantolao defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Academia Cantolao scores more
42%
level
27%
Deportivo Llacuabamba scores more
32%

Academia Cantolao at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Academia Cantolao will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
24'
31'
M. Gutierrez
36'
38'
42'
44'
68'
85'
Academia
Deportivo
J. Mariño
Manager: J. Mariño
J. Soto
Manager: J. Soto

Segunda División: Academia Cantolao 1–0 Deportivo Llacuabamba

Academia Cantolao beat Deportivo Llacuabamba 1-0 in Segunda División on September 20, 2025.

Goals: M. Gutierrez (31').

The match was played at Estadio Miguel Grau in Callao.