Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Deportivo La Guaira vs Caracas FC — Copa Venezuela 2024

Deportivo La Guaira
Deportivo La Guairaadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Caracas FC
Caracas FC
Y. Rivas 26' (pen)
8/28/2025Copa VenezuelaCopa Venezuela · Quarter-finalsEstadio Olimpico de la UCV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Deportivo La Guaira56%
×Draw23%
Caracas FC21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo La Guaira
1.79
Caracas FC
0.98

Deportivo La Guaira creates 83% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Deportivo La Guaira
2.00
Caracas FC
1.14

allows per match

Deportivo La Guaira
0.83
Caracas FC
1.57

finishing

Deportivo La Guaira+0.00on par
Caracas FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo La Guaira ↓

Caracas FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Deportivo La Guaira or draw
79%
Deportivo La Guaira or Caracas FC
77%
Draw or Caracas FC
44%

Winning margin

Deportivo La Guaira wins by 2+
32%
Caracas FC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Deportivo La Guaira 1+ goals
83%
Deportivo La Guaira 2+ goals
53%
Deportivo La Guaira 3+ goals
26%
Caracas FC 1+ goals
62%
Caracas FC 2+ goals
26%
Caracas FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Deportivo La Guaira (draw refunded)
73%
Caracas FC (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo La Guaira at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Caracas FC away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo La Guaira attack 2.00 + Caracas FC defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.79

Caracas FC attack 1.14 + Deportivo La Guaira defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Deportivo La Guaira scores more
56%
level
23%
Caracas FC scores more
21%

Deportivo La Guaira at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Deportivo La Guaira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
Y. RivasPenalty
73'
N. Jimenez
74'
J. Chavez
74'
M. Sulbaran
Deportivo
Caracas
Juan Domingo Tolisano
Manager: Juan Domingo Tolisano
Fernando Luis Aristeguieta de Luca
Manager: Fernando Luis Aristeguieta de Luca

Copa Venezuela: Deportivo La Guaira 1–0 Caracas FC

Deportivo La Guaira beat Caracas FC 1-0 in Copa Venezuela on August 28, 2025.

Goals: Y. Rivas (26' pen).

The match was played at Estadio Olimpico de la UCV in Caracas.