Caracas FC 0–1 Deportivo La Guaira: Result & Stats

Caracas FC

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Deportivo La Guaira

Y. Rivas 90'

8/20/2025

Copa Venezuela · Quarter-finalsEstadio Olímpico de la UCV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Caracas FC53%

×Draw29%

Deportivo La Guaira18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Caracas FCExpected goals in this matchDeportivo La Guaira

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.63

Caracas FC

1.29

Deportivo La Guaira

0.63

Caracas FC creates 105% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

1.57

creates per match

0.83

0.43

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Caracas FC

1.57

Deportivo La Guaira

0.83

allows per match

Caracas FC

0.43

Deportivo La Guaira

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Caracas FC+0.00on par

Deportivo La Guaira+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caracas FC ↓

Deportivo La Guaira →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Caracas FC or draw

82%

Caracas FC or Deportivo La Guaira

71%

Draw or Deportivo La Guaira

47%

Winning margin

Caracas FC wins by 2+

25%

Deportivo La Guaira wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Caracas FC 1+ goals

72%

Caracas FC 2+ goals

37%

Caracas FC 3+ goals

14%

Deportivo La Guaira 1+ goals

47%

Deportivo La Guaira 2+ goals

13%

Deportivo La Guaira 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Caracas FC (draw refunded)

74%

Deportivo La Guaira (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caracas FC at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.43 · 7 matches

Deportivo La Guaira away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caracas FC attack 1.57 + Deportivo La Guaira defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.29

Deportivo La Guaira attack 0.83 + Caracas FC defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Caracas FC scores more

53%

level

29%

Deportivo La Guaira scores more

18%

Caracas FC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Caracas FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90'

Y. Rivas

Caracas

Deportivo

Manager: Fernando Luis Aristeguieta de Luca

Manager: Juan Domingo Tolisano