Deportivo La Guaira 1–2 Caracas FC: Result & Stats

Deportivo La Guaira

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Caracas FC

10/21/2022

Primera División · Copa Sudamericana Play-off - 6Estadio Olímpico de la UCV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 146+ matches

Deportivo La Guaira41%

×Draw28%

Caracas FC31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo La GuairaExpected goals in this matchCaracas FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.05

Deportivo La Guaira

1.25

Caracas FC

1.05

Deportivo La Guaira creates 19% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 146 away

1.49

creates per match

1.22

0.89

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Deportivo La Guaira

1.49

Caracas FC

1.22

allows per match

Deportivo La Guaira

0.89

Caracas FC

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo La Guaira+0.00on par

Caracas FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo La Guaira ↓

Caracas FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Deportivo La Guaira or draw

69%

Deportivo La Guaira or Caracas FC

72%

Draw or Caracas FC

59%

Winning margin

Deportivo La Guaira wins by 2+

18%

Caracas FC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Deportivo La Guaira 1+ goals

71%

Deportivo La Guaira 2+ goals

36%

Deportivo La Guaira 3+ goals

13%

Caracas FC 1+ goals

65%

Caracas FC 2+ goals

28%

Caracas FC 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Deportivo La Guaira (draw refunded)

57%

Caracas FC (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo La Guaira at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.89 · 150 matches

Caracas FC away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.00 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo La Guaira attack 1.49 + Caracas FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Caracas FC attack 1.22 + Deportivo La Guaira defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Deportivo La Guaira scores more

41%

level

28%

Caracas FC scores more

31%

Deportivo La Guaira at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Deportivo La Guaira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff