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Deportivo La Guaira vs Atletico Venezuela — Primera División 2018

Deportivo La Guaira
Deportivo La Guaira
CANC
20:00
Atletico Venezuela
Atletico Venezuela
5/24/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 16Estadio Olímpico de la UCV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Deportivo La Guaira50%
×Draw26%
Atletico Venezuela24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo La Guaira
1.51
Atletico Venezuela
0.96

Deportivo La Guaira creates 57% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 60 away

creates per match

Deportivo La Guaira
1.49
Atletico Venezuela
1.03

allows per match

Deportivo La Guaira
0.89
Atletico Venezuela
1.53

finishing

Deportivo La Guaira+0.00on par
Atletico Venezuela+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo La Guaira ↓

Atletico Venezuela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Deportivo La Guaira or draw
76%
Deportivo La Guaira or Atletico Venezuela
74%
Draw or Atletico Venezuela
50%

Winning margin

Deportivo La Guaira wins by 2+
25%
Atletico Venezuela wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Deportivo La Guaira 1+ goals
78%
Deportivo La Guaira 2+ goals
44%
Deportivo La Guaira 3+ goals
19%
Atletico Venezuela 1+ goals
62%
Atletico Venezuela 2+ goals
25%
Atletico Venezuela 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Deportivo La Guaira (draw refunded)
68%
Atletico Venezuela (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo La Guaira at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.89 · 150 matches

Atletico Venezuela away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.53 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo La Guaira attack 1.49 + Atletico Venezuela defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.51

Atletico Venezuela attack 1.03 + Deportivo La Guaira defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Deportivo La Guaira scores more
50%
level
26%
Atletico Venezuela scores more
24%

Deportivo La Guaira at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Deportivo La Guaira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Deportivo La Guaira vs Atletico Venezuela — Match Preview

Deportivo La Guaira face Atletico Venezuela on May 24, 2020 in this Primera División fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Deportivo La Guaira host Atletico Venezuela at Estadio Olímpico de la UCV.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.