Atletico Venezuela vs Deportivo La Guaira

Atletico Venezuela

CANC

20:00

Deportivo La Guaira

10/14/2020

Primera División · Round 35Estadio Olímpico de la UCV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Atletico Venezuela37%

×Draw27%

Deportivo La Guaira36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico VenezuelaExpected goals in this matchDeportivo La Guaira

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.23

Atletico Venezuela

1.25

Deportivo La Guaira

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 148 away

1.29

creates per match

1.22

1.24

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Atletico Venezuela

1.29

Deportivo La Guaira

1.22

allows per match

Atletico Venezuela

1.24

Deportivo La Guaira

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Venezuela+0.00on par

Deportivo La Guaira+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Venezuela ↓

Deportivo La Guaira →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Atletico Venezuela or draw

64%

Atletico Venezuela or Deportivo La Guaira

73%

Draw or Deportivo La Guaira

63%

Winning margin

Atletico Venezuela wins by 2+

16%

Deportivo La Guaira wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Atletico Venezuela 1+ goals

71%

Atletico Venezuela 2+ goals

36%

Atletico Venezuela 3+ goals

13%

Deportivo La Guaira 1+ goals

71%

Deportivo La Guaira 2+ goals

35%

Deportivo La Guaira 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Atletico Venezuela (draw refunded)

51%

Deportivo La Guaira (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Venezuela at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.24 · 59 matches

Deportivo La Guaira away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.20 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Venezuela attack 1.29 + Deportivo La Guaira defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.25

Deportivo La Guaira attack 1.22 + Atletico Venezuela defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Atletico Venezuela scores more

37%

level

27%

Deportivo La Guaira scores more

36%

Atletico Venezuela at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Atletico Venezuela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff