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Deportivo La Coruna vs Cultural Leonesa — Segunda División 2018

Deportivo La Coruna
Deportivo La Coruna
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Cultural Leonesa
Cultural Leonesa
11/8/2025Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 13Estadio Municipal de Riazor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Deportivo La Coruna47%
×Draw25%
Cultural Leonesa28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo La Coruna
1.60
Cultural Leonesa
1.17

Deportivo La Coruna creates 37% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 23 away

creates per match

Deportivo La Coruna
1.42
Cultural Leonesa
1.22

allows per match

Deportivo La Coruna
1.11
Cultural Leonesa
1.78

finishing

Deportivo La Coruna+0.00on par
Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo La Coruna ↓

Cultural Leonesa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Deportivo La Coruna or draw
72%
Deportivo La Coruna or Cultural Leonesa
75%
Draw or Cultural Leonesa
53%

Winning margin

Deportivo La Coruna wins by 2+
24%
Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Deportivo La Coruna 1+ goals
80%
Deportivo La Coruna 2+ goals
47%
Deportivo La Coruna 3+ goals
22%
Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals
69%
Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals
33%
Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Deportivo La Coruna (draw refunded)
63%
Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo La Coruna at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.11 · 85 matches

Cultural Leonesa away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.78 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo La Coruna attack 1.42 + Cultural Leonesa defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.60

Cultural Leonesa attack 1.22 + Deportivo La Coruna defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Deportivo La Coruna scores more
47%
level
25%
Cultural Leonesa scores more
28%

Deportivo La Coruna at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Deportivo La Coruna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Deportivo La Coruna 3–0 Cultural Leonesa

Deportivo La Coruna beat Cultural Leonesa 3-0 in Segunda División on November 8, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Riazor in La Coruña.