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Deportivo La Coruna vs Cultural Leonesa — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Deportivo La Coruna
Deportivo La Coruna
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Cultural Leonesa
Cultural Leonesa
4/20/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 33Estadio Abanca-Riazor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Deportivo La Coruna52%
×Draw26%
Cultural Leonesa22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo La Coruna
1.50
Cultural Leonesa
0.86

Deportivo La Coruna creates 74% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 88 away

creates per match

Deportivo La Coruna
1.69
Cultural Leonesa
1.16

allows per match

Deportivo La Coruna
0.57
Cultural Leonesa
1.31

finishing

Deportivo La Coruna+0.00on par
Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo La Coruna ↓

Cultural Leonesa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Deportivo La Coruna or draw
78%
Deportivo La Coruna or Cultural Leonesa
74%
Draw or Cultural Leonesa
48%

Winning margin

Deportivo La Coruna wins by 2+
27%
Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Deportivo La Coruna 1+ goals
78%
Deportivo La Coruna 2+ goals
44%
Deportivo La Coruna 3+ goals
19%
Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals
58%
Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals
21%
Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Deportivo La Coruna (draw refunded)
71%
Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo La Coruna at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.57 · 68 matches

Cultural Leonesa away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.31 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo La Coruna attack 1.69 + Cultural Leonesa defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.50

Cultural Leonesa attack 1.16 + Deportivo La Coruna defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Deportivo La Coruna scores more
52%
level
26%
Cultural Leonesa scores more
22%

Deportivo La Coruna at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Deportivo La Coruna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Deportivo La Coruna 2–0 Cultural Leonesa

Deportivo La Coruna beat Cultural Leonesa 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Abanca-Riazor in La Coruña.