Deportivo La Coruna 1–1 Cornellà: Result & Stats

Deportivo La Coruna

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Cornellà

Pablo Vázquez 30'

Andreu Hernández 69'

9/23/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 5Estadio Abanca-Riazor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Deportivo La Coruna60%

×Draw25%

Cornellà15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo La CorunaExpected goals in this matchCornellà

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

0.63

Deportivo La Coruna

1.55

Cornellà

0.63

Deportivo La Coruna creates 146% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 19 away

1.69

creates per match

0.68

0.57

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Deportivo La Coruna

1.69

Cornellà

0.68

allows per match

Deportivo La Coruna

0.57

Cornellà

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo La Coruna+0.00on par

Cornellà+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo La Coruna ↓

Cornellà →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Deportivo La Coruna or draw

85%

Deportivo La Coruna or Cornellà

75%

Draw or Cornellà

40%

Winning margin

Deportivo La Coruna wins by 2+

32%

Cornellà wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Deportivo La Coruna 1+ goals

79%

Deportivo La Coruna 2+ goals

46%

Deportivo La Coruna 3+ goals

20%

Cornellà 1+ goals

47%

Cornellà 2+ goals

13%

Cornellà 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Deportivo La Coruna (draw refunded)

80%

Cornellà (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo La Coruna at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.57 · 68 matches

Cornellà away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo La Coruna attack 1.69 + Cornellà defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.55

Cornellà attack 0.68 + Deportivo La Coruna defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Deportivo La Coruna scores more

60%

level

25%

Cornellà scores more

15%

Deportivo La Coruna at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Deportivo La Coruna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

Pablo Vázquez

58'

B. Cayarga

64'

Marc Tenas← Mamor Niang

69'

Andreu Hernández

73'

Salva Sevilla← Berto Cayarga

74'

Martín Ochoa← Davo

74'

Adam Cherradi← Canario

74'

José Mas← Kike López

86'

Toni Arranz

86'

Diego Gómez← Diego Villares

89'

Koffi← Antonio Caballero

Deportivo

Cornellà

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Imanol Idiakez

73'▲Salva Sevilla←▼Berto Cayarga

74'▲Martín Ochoa←▼Davo

86'▲Diego Gómez←▼Diego Villares

Deportivo La Coruna substitutes

SevillaOchoaGómezSánchezBarciaMackaySánchezNoriegaMuñozRetuCastillo

Manager: Gonzalo Riutort

64'▲Marc Tenas←▼Mamor Niang

74'▲Adam Cherradi←▼Canario

74'▲José Mas←▼Kike López

89'▲Koffi←▼Antonio Caballero

Cornellà substitutes

TenasCherradiMasKoffiGonpiMacíasMeikher

Match Recap: Deportivo La Coruna vs Cornellà

Deportivo La Coruna and Cornellà drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on September 23, 2023.

Goals: Pablo Vázquez (30'), Andreu Hernández (69').

The match was played at Estadio Abanca-Riazor in La Coruña.

Deportivo La Coruna vs Cornellà — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Deportivo La Coruna vs Cornellà