Cornellà 0–1 Deportivo La Coruna: Result & Stats

Cornellà

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Deportivo La Coruna

Hugo Rama 29'

3/30/2024

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 30Ciutat Esportiva Dani Jarque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Cornellà30%

×Draw32%

Deportivo La Coruna38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CornellàExpected goals in this matchDeportivo La Coruna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.86

1.02

Cornellà

0.86

Deportivo La Coruna

1.02

Deportivo La Coruna creates 19% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 68 away

0.89

creates per match

1.15

0.89

allows per match

0.84

creates per match

Cornellà

0.89

Deportivo La Coruna

1.15

allows per match

Cornellà

0.89

Deportivo La Coruna

0.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cornellà+0.00on par

Deportivo La Coruna+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cornellà ↓

Deportivo La Coruna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–116%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Cornellà or draw

62%

Cornellà or Deportivo La Coruna

68%

Draw or Deportivo La Coruna

70%

Winning margin

Cornellà wins by 2+

10%

Deportivo La Coruna wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Cornellà 1+ goals

58%

Cornellà 2+ goals

21%

Cornellà 3+ goals

6%

Deportivo La Coruna 1+ goals

64%

Deportivo La Coruna 2+ goals

27%

Deportivo La Coruna 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Cornellà (draw refunded)

44%

Deportivo La Coruna (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cornellà at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Deportivo La Coruna away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.84 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cornellà attack 0.89 + Deportivo La Coruna defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.86

Deportivo La Coruna attack 1.15 + Cornellà defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cornellà scores more

30%

level

32%

Deportivo La Coruna scores more

38%

Deportivo La Coruna at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Deportivo La Coruna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

Hugo Rama

45+1'

S. Ayala

55'

I. Barbero

60'

David Mella← Davo

61'

A. Caballero

65'

Luisao Macías← E. Sutherland

76'

Raúl Alcaina← Barbero

76'

Rubén López← Hugo Rama

77'

R. Lopez

81'

Canario← Marc Tenas

81'

Robert Simón← Toni Arranz

87'

Gonpi← José Mas

89'

J. Jurado

89'

Canario

Cornellà

Deportivo

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Gonzalo Riutort

65'▲Luisao Macías←▼E. Sutherland

81'▲Canario←▼Marc Tenas

81'▲Robert Simón←▼Toni Arranz

87'▲Gonpi←▼José Mas

Cornellà substitutes

MacíasCanarioSimónGonpiBobiRomagosaRíosHaoVilaplanaSomaMeikherBarrantes

Manager: Imanol Idiakez

60'▲David Mella←▼Davo

76'▲Raúl Alcaina←▼Barbero

76'▲Rubén López←▼Hugo Rama

Deportivo La Coruna substitutes

MellaAlcainaLópezSánchezCayargaBarciaPuertoImbeneSánchezQuinteroAdotSevilla

Match Recap: Cornellà vs Deportivo La Coruna

Deportivo La Coruna beat Cornellà 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on March 30, 2024.

Goals: Hugo Rama (29').

The match was played at Ciutat Esportiva Dani Jarque in San Adrián de Besós.

Cornellà vs Deportivo La Coruna — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Cornellà vs Deportivo La Coruna