Deportivo La Coruna 0–1 Celta de Vigo II

Deportivo La Coruna

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Celta de Vigo II

10/8/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 7Estadio Abanca-Riazor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Deportivo La Coruna50%

×Draw26%

Celta de Vigo II24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo La CorunaExpected goals in this matchCelta de Vigo II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

0.95

Deportivo La Coruna

1.49

Celta de Vigo II

0.95

Deportivo La Coruna creates 57% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 120 away

1.69

creates per match

1.33

0.57

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Deportivo La Coruna

1.69

Celta de Vigo II

1.33

allows per match

Deportivo La Coruna

0.57

Celta de Vigo II

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo La Coruna+0.00on par

Celta de Vigo II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo La Coruna ↓

Celta de Vigo II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Deportivo La Coruna or draw

76%

Deportivo La Coruna or Celta de Vigo II

74%

Draw or Celta de Vigo II

50%

Winning margin

Deportivo La Coruna wins by 2+

25%

Celta de Vigo II wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Deportivo La Coruna 1+ goals

77%

Deportivo La Coruna 2+ goals

44%

Deportivo La Coruna 3+ goals

19%

Celta de Vigo II 1+ goals

61%

Celta de Vigo II 2+ goals

25%

Celta de Vigo II 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Deportivo La Coruna (draw refunded)

67%

Celta de Vigo II (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo La Coruna at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.57 · 68 matches

Celta de Vigo II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.29 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo La Coruna attack 1.69 + Celta de Vigo II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.49

Celta de Vigo II attack 1.33 + Deportivo La Coruna defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Deportivo La Coruna scores more

50%

level

26%

Celta de Vigo II scores more

24%

Deportivo La Coruna at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Deportivo La Coruna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff