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Celta de Vigo II vs Deportivo La Coruna — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Celta de Vigo II
Celta de Vigo II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo La Coruna
Deportivo La Coruna
1/28/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 21Abanca-Balaídos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Celta de Vigo II39%
×Draw28%
Deportivo La Coruna33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Celta de Vigo II
1.26
Deportivo La Coruna
1.14

Celta de Vigo II creates 11% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 68 away

creates per match

Celta de Vigo II
1.68
Deportivo La Coruna
1.15

allows per match

Celta de Vigo II
1.12
Deportivo La Coruna
0.84

finishing

Celta de Vigo II+0.00on par
Deportivo La Coruna+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celta de Vigo II ↓

Deportivo La Coruna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Celta de Vigo II or draw
67%
Celta de Vigo II or Deportivo La Coruna
72%
Draw or Deportivo La Coruna
61%

Winning margin

Celta de Vigo II wins by 2+
17%
Deportivo La Coruna wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Celta de Vigo II 1+ goals
72%
Celta de Vigo II 2+ goals
36%
Celta de Vigo II 3+ goals
13%
Deportivo La Coruna 1+ goals
68%
Deportivo La Coruna 2+ goals
32%
Deportivo La Coruna 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Celta de Vigo II (draw refunded)
54%
Deportivo La Coruna (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Celta de Vigo II at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.12 · 121 matches

Deportivo La Coruna away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.84 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Celta de Vigo II attack 1.68 + Deportivo La Coruna defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.26

Deportivo La Coruna attack 1.15 + Celta de Vigo II defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Celta de Vigo II scores more
39%
level
28%
Deportivo La Coruna scores more
33%

Celta de Vigo II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Celta de Vigo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Celta de Vigo II vs Deportivo La Coruna

Deportivo La Coruna beat Celta de Vigo II 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on January 28, 2024.

The match was played at Abanca-Balaídos in Vigo.