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Deportivo La Coruna vs Algeciras — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Deportivo La Coruna
Deportivo La Coruna
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Algeciras
Algeciras
5/20/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 37Estadio Abanca-Riazor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Deportivo La Coruna56%
×Draw26%
Algeciras19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo La Coruna
1.55
Algeciras
0.78

Deportivo La Coruna creates 99% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 19 away

creates per match

Deportivo La Coruna
1.69
Algeciras
1.00

allows per match

Deportivo La Coruna
0.57
Algeciras
1.42

finishing

Deportivo La Coruna+0.00on par
Algeciras+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo La Coruna ↓

Algeciras →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Deportivo La Coruna or draw
81%
Deportivo La Coruna or Algeciras
74%
Draw or Algeciras
44%

Winning margin

Deportivo La Coruna wins by 2+
29%
Algeciras wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Deportivo La Coruna 1+ goals
79%
Deportivo La Coruna 2+ goals
46%
Deportivo La Coruna 3+ goals
20%
Algeciras 1+ goals
54%
Algeciras 2+ goals
18%
Algeciras 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Deportivo La Coruna (draw refunded)
75%
Algeciras (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo La Coruna at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.57 · 68 matches

Algeciras away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo La Coruna attack 1.69 + Algeciras defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.55

Algeciras attack 1.00 + Deportivo La Coruna defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Deportivo La Coruna scores more
56%
level
26%
Algeciras scores more
19%

Deportivo La Coruna at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Deportivo La Coruna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Deportivo La Coruna 4–0 Algeciras

Deportivo La Coruna beat Algeciras 4-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on May 20, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Abanca-Riazor in La Coruña.