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Algeciras vs Deportivo La Coruna — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Algeciras
Algeciras
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Deportivo La Coruna
Deportivo La Coruna
11/5/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 11Estadio Nuevo Mirador

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Algeciras28%
×Draw31%
Deportivo La Coruna41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Algeciras
0.86
Deportivo La Coruna
1.10

Deportivo La Coruna creates 28% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 68 away

creates per match

Algeciras
0.89
Deportivo La Coruna
1.15

allows per match

Algeciras
1.05
Deportivo La Coruna
0.84

finishing

Algeciras+0.00on par
Deportivo La Coruna+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Algeciras ↓

Deportivo La Coruna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–115%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Algeciras or draw
59%
Algeciras or Deportivo La Coruna
69%
Draw or Deportivo La Coruna
72%

Winning margin

Algeciras wins by 2+
9%
Deportivo La Coruna wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Algeciras 1+ goals
58%
Algeciras 2+ goals
21%
Algeciras 3+ goals
6%
Deportivo La Coruna 1+ goals
67%
Deportivo La Coruna 2+ goals
30%
Deportivo La Coruna 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Algeciras (draw refunded)
41%
Deportivo La Coruna (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Algeciras at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Deportivo La Coruna away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.84 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Algeciras attack 0.89 + Deportivo La Coruna defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.86

Deportivo La Coruna attack 1.15 + Algeciras defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Algeciras scores more
28%
level
31%
Deportivo La Coruna scores more
41%

Deportivo La Coruna at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Deportivo La Coruna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Algeciras vs Deportivo La Coruna

Deportivo La Coruna beat Algeciras 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 5, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Mirador in Algeciras.