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Deportivo La Coruña II vs Arzúa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Deportivo La Coruña II
Deportivo La Coruña II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Arzúa
Arzúa
4/3/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 30Ciudad Deportiva de Abegondo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Deportivo La Coruña II62%
×Draw22%
Arzúa15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo La Coruña II
1.85
Arzúa
0.79

Deportivo La Coruña II creates 134% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 79 away

creates per match

Deportivo La Coruña II
1.97
Arzúa
0.86

allows per match

Deportivo La Coruña II
0.73
Arzúa
1.73

finishing

Deportivo La Coruña II+0.00on par
Arzúa+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo La Coruña II ↓

Arzúa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Deportivo La Coruña II or draw
85%
Deportivo La Coruña II or Arzúa
78%
Draw or Arzúa
38%

Winning margin

Deportivo La Coruña II wins by 2+
37%
Arzúa wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Deportivo La Coruña II 1+ goals
84%
Deportivo La Coruña II 2+ goals
55%
Deportivo La Coruña II 3+ goals
28%
Arzúa 1+ goals
55%
Arzúa 2+ goals
19%
Arzúa 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Deportivo La Coruña II (draw refunded)
80%
Arzúa (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo La Coruña II at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.73 · 59 matches

Arzúa away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.73 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo La Coruña II attack 1.97 + Arzúa defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.85

Arzúa attack 0.86 + Deportivo La Coruña II defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Deportivo La Coruña II scores more
62%
level
22%
Arzúa scores more
15%

Deportivo La Coruña II at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Deportivo La Coruña II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Deportivo La Coruña II 2 – 0 Arzúa

Deportivo La Coruña II beat Arzúa 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on April 3, 2022.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Abegondo in La Coruña.