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Arzúa vs Deportivo La Coruña II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Arzúa
Arzúa
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo La Coruña II
Deportivo La Coruña II
2/12/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 20Estadio Do Viso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Arzúa37%
×Draw28%
Deportivo La Coruña II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arzúa
1.18
Deportivo La Coruña II
1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 78 home / 58 away

creates per match

Arzúa
1.31
Deportivo La Coruña II
1.16

allows per match

Arzúa
1.08
Deportivo La Coruña II
1.05

finishing

Arzúa+0.00on par
Deportivo La Coruña II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arzúa ↓

Deportivo La Coruña II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Arzúa or draw
66%
Arzúa or Deportivo La Coruña II
72%
Draw or Deportivo La Coruña II
63%

Winning margin

Arzúa wins by 2+
16%
Deportivo La Coruña II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Arzúa 1+ goals
69%
Arzúa 2+ goals
33%
Arzúa 3+ goals
12%
Deportivo La Coruña II 1+ goals
67%
Deportivo La Coruña II 2+ goals
31%
Deportivo La Coruña II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Arzúa (draw refunded)
52%
Deportivo La Coruña II (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arzúa at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.08 · 78 matches

Deportivo La Coruña II away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.05 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arzúa attack 1.31 + Deportivo La Coruña II defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.18

Deportivo La Coruña II attack 1.16 + Arzúa defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Arzúa scores more
37%
level
28%
Deportivo La Coruña II scores more
34%

Arzúa at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Arzúa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Arzúa 0 – 1 Deportivo La Coruña II

Deportivo La Coruña II beat Arzúa 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on February 12, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Do Viso in Arzúa.