Deportivo Hualgayoc 2–0 Atletico Grau

Deportivo Hualgayoc

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Atletico Grau

9/3/2018

Segunda División · Round 23Estadio Municipal de Hualgayoc (Hualgayoc)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Deportivo Hualgayoc57%

×Draw22%

Atletico Grau21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo HualgayocExpected goals in this matchAtletico Grau

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.14

Deportivo Hualgayoc

2.00

Atletico Grau

1.14

Deportivo Hualgayoc creates 75% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 40 away

2.07

creates per match

1.35

0.93

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Deportivo Hualgayoc

2.07

Atletico Grau

1.35

allows per match

Deportivo Hualgayoc

0.93

Atletico Grau

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Hualgayoc+0.00on par

Atletico Grau+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Hualgayoc ↓

Atletico Grau →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Deportivo Hualgayoc or draw

79%

Deportivo Hualgayoc or Atletico Grau

78%

Draw or Atletico Grau

43%

Winning margin

Deportivo Hualgayoc wins by 2+

34%

Atletico Grau wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Deportivo Hualgayoc 1+ goals

86%

Deportivo Hualgayoc 2+ goals

59%

Deportivo Hualgayoc 3+ goals

32%

Atletico Grau 1+ goals

68%

Atletico Grau 2+ goals

32%

Atletico Grau 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Hualgayoc (draw refunded)

73%

Atletico Grau (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Hualgayoc at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

Atletico Grau away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.93 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Hualgayoc attack 2.07 + Atletico Grau defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.00

Atletico Grau attack 1.35 + Deportivo Hualgayoc defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Deportivo Hualgayoc scores more

57%

level

22%

Atletico Grau scores more

21%

Deportivo Hualgayoc at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Deportivo Hualgayoc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff