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Atletico Grau vs Deportivo Hualgayoc — Segunda División 2018

Atletico Grau
Atletico Grau
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Deportivo Hualgayoc
Deportivo Hualgayoc
5/27/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 8Estadio Miguel Grau de Piura (Piura)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Atletico Grau63%
×Draw19%
Deportivo Hualgayoc18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Grau
2.29
Deportivo Hualgayoc
1.13

Atletico Grau creates 103% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 14 away

creates per match

Atletico Grau
2.79
Deportivo Hualgayoc
1.43

allows per match

Atletico Grau
0.82
Deportivo Hualgayoc
1.79

finishing

Atletico Grau+0.00on par
Deportivo Hualgayoc+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Grau ↓

Deportivo Hualgayoc →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Atletico Grau or draw
82%
Atletico Grau or Deportivo Hualgayoc
81%
Draw or Deportivo Hualgayoc
37%

Winning margin

Atletico Grau wins by 2+
40%
Deportivo Hualgayoc wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Atletico Grau 1+ goals
90%
Atletico Grau 2+ goals
66%
Atletico Grau 3+ goals
40%
Deportivo Hualgayoc 1+ goals
68%
Deportivo Hualgayoc 2+ goals
31%
Deportivo Hualgayoc 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Atletico Grau (draw refunded)
78%
Deportivo Hualgayoc (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Grau at home — creates 2.79, concedes 0.82 · 39 matches

Deportivo Hualgayoc away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Grau attack 2.79 + Deportivo Hualgayoc defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 2.29

Deportivo Hualgayoc attack 1.43 + Atletico Grau defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Atletico Grau scores more
63%
level
19%
Deportivo Hualgayoc scores more
18%

Atletico Grau at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Atletico Grau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atletico Grau vs Deportivo Hualgayoc

Atletico Grau and Deportivo Hualgayoc drew 2-2 in Segunda División on May 27, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Miguel Grau de Piura (Piura).