Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Deportivo Hualgayoc vs Alianza Atletico — Segunda División 2018

Deportivo Hualgayoc
Deportivo Hualgayoc
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Alianza Atletico
Alianza Atletico
10/28/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 30Estadio Municipal de Hualgayoc (Hualgayoc)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Deportivo Hualgayoc54%
×Draw23%
Alianza Atletico23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Hualgayoc
1.80
Alianza Atletico
1.10

Deportivo Hualgayoc creates 64% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 32 away

creates per match

Deportivo Hualgayoc
2.07
Alianza Atletico
1.28

allows per match

Deportivo Hualgayoc
0.93
Alianza Atletico
1.53

finishing

Deportivo Hualgayoc+0.00on par
Alianza Atletico+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Hualgayoc ↓

Alianza Atletico →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Deportivo Hualgayoc or draw
77%
Deportivo Hualgayoc or Alianza Atletico
77%
Draw or Alianza Atletico
46%

Winning margin

Deportivo Hualgayoc wins by 2+
30%
Alianza Atletico wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Deportivo Hualgayoc 1+ goals
83%
Deportivo Hualgayoc 2+ goals
54%
Deportivo Hualgayoc 3+ goals
27%
Alianza Atletico 1+ goals
67%
Alianza Atletico 2+ goals
30%
Alianza Atletico 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Hualgayoc (draw refunded)
70%
Alianza Atletico (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Hualgayoc at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

Alianza Atletico away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.53 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Hualgayoc attack 2.07 + Alianza Atletico defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.80

Alianza Atletico attack 1.28 + Deportivo Hualgayoc defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Deportivo Hualgayoc scores more
54%
level
23%
Alianza Atletico scores more
23%

Deportivo Hualgayoc at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Deportivo Hualgayoc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Deportivo Hualgayoc 0–0 Alianza Atletico

Deportivo Hualgayoc and Alianza Atletico drew 0-0 in Segunda División on October 28, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Hualgayoc (Hualgayoc).