Alianza Atletico 1–0 Deportivo Hualgayoc

Alianza Atletico

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Deportivo Hualgayoc

7/14/2018

Segunda División · Round 15Estadio Víctor Montero Zapata (Sojo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Alianza Atletico56%

×Draw22%

Deportivo Hualgayoc22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza AtleticoExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Hualgayoc

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.17

Alianza Atletico

2.00

Deportivo Hualgayoc

1.17

Alianza Atletico creates 71% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 14 away

2.22

creates per match

1.43

0.91

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Alianza Atletico

2.22

Deportivo Hualgayoc

1.43

allows per match

Alianza Atletico

0.91

Deportivo Hualgayoc

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alianza Atletico+0.00on par

Deportivo Hualgayoc+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Atletico ↓

Deportivo Hualgayoc →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Alianza Atletico or draw

78%

Alianza Atletico or Deportivo Hualgayoc

78%

Draw or Deportivo Hualgayoc

44%

Winning margin

Alianza Atletico wins by 2+

33%

Deportivo Hualgayoc wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Alianza Atletico 1+ goals

86%

Alianza Atletico 2+ goals

59%

Alianza Atletico 3+ goals

32%

Deportivo Hualgayoc 1+ goals

69%

Deportivo Hualgayoc 2+ goals

33%

Deportivo Hualgayoc 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Alianza Atletico (draw refunded)

72%

Deportivo Hualgayoc (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Atletico at home — creates 2.22, concedes 0.91 · 32 matches

Deportivo Hualgayoc away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Atletico attack 2.22 + Deportivo Hualgayoc defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 2.00

Deportivo Hualgayoc attack 1.43 + Alianza Atletico defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Alianza Atletico scores more

56%

level

22%

Deportivo Hualgayoc scores more

22%

Alianza Atletico at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Alianza Atletico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff