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Deportivo Garcilaso vs Cesar Vallejo — Primera División 2026

Deportivo Garcilaso
Deportivo Garcilaso
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Cesar Vallejo
Cesar Vallejo
8/28/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 11Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Deportivo Garcilaso46%
×Draw26%
Cesar Vallejo28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Garcilaso
1.44
Cesar Vallejo
1.06

Deportivo Garcilaso creates 36% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 99 away

creates per match

Deportivo Garcilaso
1.52
Cesar Vallejo
1.00

allows per match

Deportivo Garcilaso
1.11
Cesar Vallejo
1.36

finishing

Deportivo Garcilaso+0.00on par
Cesar Vallejo+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Garcilaso ↓

Cesar Vallejo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Deportivo Garcilaso or draw
72%
Deportivo Garcilaso or Cesar Vallejo
74%
Draw or Cesar Vallejo
54%

Winning margin

Deportivo Garcilaso wins by 2+
22%
Cesar Vallejo wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Deportivo Garcilaso 1+ goals
76%
Deportivo Garcilaso 2+ goals
42%
Deportivo Garcilaso 3+ goals
18%
Cesar Vallejo 1+ goals
65%
Cesar Vallejo 2+ goals
29%
Cesar Vallejo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Garcilaso (draw refunded)
62%
Cesar Vallejo (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Garcilaso at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.11 · 62 matches

Cesar Vallejo away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.36 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Garcilaso attack 1.52 + Cesar Vallejo defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.44

Cesar Vallejo attack 1.00 + Deportivo Garcilaso defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Deportivo Garcilaso scores more
46%
level
26%
Cesar Vallejo scores more
28%

Deportivo Garcilaso at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Deportivo Garcilaso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Deportivo Garcilaso 1 – 0 Cesar Vallejo

Deportivo Garcilaso beat Cesar Vallejo 1-0 in Primera División on August 28, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega in Cusco.