Cesar Vallejo 3–0 Deportivo Garcilaso

Cesar Vallejo

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Deportivo Garcilaso

4/10/2023

Primera División · Apertura - 11Estadio Mansiche

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Cesar Vallejo47%

×Draw27%

Deportivo Garcilaso26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cesar VallejoExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Garcilaso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.00

Cesar Vallejo

1.43

Deportivo Garcilaso

1.00

Cesar Vallejo creates 43% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 61 away

1.54

creates per match

1.11

0.88

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Cesar Vallejo

1.54

Deportivo Garcilaso

1.11

allows per match

Cesar Vallejo

0.88

Deportivo Garcilaso

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cesar Vallejo+0.00on par

Deportivo Garcilaso+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cesar Vallejo ↓

Deportivo Garcilaso →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Cesar Vallejo or draw

74%

Cesar Vallejo or Deportivo Garcilaso

73%

Draw or Deportivo Garcilaso

53%

Winning margin

Cesar Vallejo wins by 2+

23%

Deportivo Garcilaso wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Cesar Vallejo 1+ goals

76%

Cesar Vallejo 2+ goals

42%

Cesar Vallejo 3+ goals

17%

Deportivo Garcilaso 1+ goals

63%

Deportivo Garcilaso 2+ goals

26%

Deportivo Garcilaso 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Cesar Vallejo (draw refunded)

64%

Deportivo Garcilaso (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cesar Vallejo at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.88 · 96 matches

Deportivo Garcilaso away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.31 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cesar Vallejo attack 1.54 + Deportivo Garcilaso defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.43

Deportivo Garcilaso attack 1.11 + Cesar Vallejo defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Cesar Vallejo scores more

47%

level

27%

Deportivo Garcilaso scores more

26%

Cesar Vallejo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Cesar Vallejo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff