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Deportivo Español vs Central Cordoba — Primera C 2026

Deportivo Español
Deportivo Español
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Central Cordoba
Central Cordobaadvanced
10/13/2025Primera CPrimera C · Quarter-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 121+ matches

Deportivo Español42%
×Draw30%
Central Cordoba28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Español
1.14
Central Cordoba
0.88

Deportivo Español creates 30% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 136 away

creates per match

Deportivo Español
1.22
Central Cordoba
0.89

allows per match

Deportivo Español
0.86
Central Cordoba
1.06

finishing

Deportivo Español+0.00on par
Central Cordoba+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Español ↓

Central Cordoba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Deportivo Español or draw
72%
Deportivo Español or Central Cordoba
70%
Draw or Central Cordoba
58%

Winning margin

Deportivo Español wins by 2+
18%
Central Cordoba wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Deportivo Español 1+ goals
68%
Deportivo Español 2+ goals
32%
Deportivo Español 3+ goals
11%
Central Cordoba 1+ goals
59%
Central Cordoba 2+ goals
22%
Central Cordoba 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Español (draw refunded)
60%
Central Cordoba (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Español at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.86 · 121 matches

Central Cordoba away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.06 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Español attack 1.22 + Central Cordoba defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.14

Central Cordoba attack 0.89 + Deportivo Español defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Deportivo Español scores more
42%
level
30%
Central Cordoba scores more
28%

Deportivo Español at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Deportivo Español will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera C: Deportivo Español 1–2 Central Cordoba

Central Cordoba beat Deportivo Español 2-1 in Primera C on October 13, 2025.