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Central Cordoba vs Deportivo Español — Primera C 2026

Central Cordoba
Central Cordoba
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Deportivo Español
Deportivo Españoladvanced
10/18/2025Primera CPrimera C · Quarter-finalsEstadio Gabino Sosa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 122+ matches

Central Cordoba38%
×Draw31%
Deportivo Español30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Central Cordoba
1.04
Deportivo Español
0.89

Central Cordoba creates 17% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 122 away

creates per match

Central Cordoba
1.13
Deportivo Español
0.94

allows per match

Central Cordoba
0.83
Deportivo Español
0.96

finishing

Central Cordoba+0.00on par
Deportivo Español+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Cordoba ↓

Deportivo Español →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Central Cordoba or draw
70%
Central Cordoba or Deportivo Español
69%
Draw or Deportivo Español
62%

Winning margin

Central Cordoba wins by 2+
15%
Deportivo Español wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Central Cordoba 1+ goals
65%
Central Cordoba 2+ goals
28%
Central Cordoba 3+ goals
9%
Deportivo Español 1+ goals
59%
Deportivo Español 2+ goals
22%
Deportivo Español 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Central Cordoba (draw refunded)
56%
Deportivo Español (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Cordoba at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.83 · 137 matches

Deportivo Español away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.96 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Cordoba attack 1.13 + Deportivo Español defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.04

Deportivo Español attack 0.94 + Central Cordoba defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Central Cordoba scores more
38%
level
31%
Deportivo Español scores more
30%

Central Cordoba at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Central Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Central Cordoba vs Deportivo Español

Deportivo Español beat Central Cordoba 3-0 in Primera C on October 18, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Gabino Sosa in Rosario.