Deportivo Cuenca 1–1 Tecnico Universitario

Deportivo Cuenca

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Tecnico Universitario

N. Dávila 45+1'

J. Blanco 66'

8/29/2023

Liga Pro · 2nd Round - 4Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar Banco del Austro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

Deportivo Cuenca48%

×Draw26%

Tecnico Universitario26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CuencaExpected goals in this matchTecnico Universitario

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.99

Deportivo Cuenca

1.46

Tecnico Universitario

0.99

Deportivo Cuenca creates 47% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 127 away

1.54

creates per match

0.86

1.11

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Deportivo Cuenca

1.54

Tecnico Universitario

0.86

allows per match

Deportivo Cuenca

1.11

Tecnico Universitario

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Cuenca+0.00on par

Tecnico Universitario+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cuenca ↓

Tecnico Universitario →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Deportivo Cuenca or draw

74%

Deportivo Cuenca or Tecnico Universitario

74%

Draw or Tecnico Universitario

52%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+

24%

Tecnico Universitario wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals

77%

Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals

43%

Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals

18%

Tecnico Universitario 1+ goals

63%

Tecnico Universitario 2+ goals

26%

Tecnico Universitario 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)

65%

Tecnico Universitario (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cuenca at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.11 · 132 matches

Tecnico Universitario away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.39 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cuenca attack 1.54 + Tecnico Universitario defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.46

Tecnico Universitario attack 0.86 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Deportivo Cuenca scores more

48%

level

26%

Tecnico Universitario scores more

26%

Deportivo Cuenca at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Deportivo Cuenca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

J. Blanco

Tecnico Universitario · F

7.9

Match Events

28'

Rodrigo Melo

30'

Luis Estupiñan

32'

Marcos Andrés LópezPenalty cancelled

45+1'

N. Dávila↳ L. Mancinelli

46'

D. Noboa← R. Melo

55'

Luciano Recalde

58'

A. Muñoz← L. Estupiñán

59'

S. Tapiero← J. Jiménez

59'

W. Cevallos← O. Mejía

64'

Y. Filigrana← E. Carcelén

66'

J. Blanco

77'

E. López← R. Becerra

77'

F. Mera← S. López

90+1'

A. Rangel← A. Bolaños

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoTecnico

Overview

58%Possession42%

17Total Shots16

5Corners4

13Fouls15

Shots

17Total Shots16

5On Target6

8Off Target5

4Blocked5

10Inside Box8

7Outside Box8

Passing

58%Possession42%

422Total Passes315

330Accurate Passes220

78%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls15

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2