Deportivo Cuenca 1–1 Orense SC: Result & Stats

Deportivo Cuenca

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Orense SC

J. Vernaza 49'

L. Villagra 68'

5/24/2022

Liga Pro · 1st Round - 14Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar Banco del Austro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Deportivo Cuenca50%

×Draw25%

Orense SC25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CuencaExpected goals in this matchOrense SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.07

Deportivo Cuenca

1.62

Orense SC

1.07

Deportivo Cuenca creates 51% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

1.37

creates per match

1.05

1.09

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Deportivo Cuenca

1.37

Orense SC

1.05

allows per match

Deportivo Cuenca

1.09

Orense SC

1.86

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Deportivo Cuenca-0.15scores less

Orense SC-0.05on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cuenca ↓

Orense SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Deportivo Cuenca or draw

75%

Deportivo Cuenca or Orense SC

75%

Draw or Orense SC

50%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+

26%

Orense SC wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals

80%

Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals

48%

Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals

22%

Orense SC 1+ goals

66%

Orense SC 2+ goals

29%

Orense SC 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)

67%

Orense SC (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cuenca at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.09 · 9 matches

Orense SC away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.86 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cuenca attack 1.37 + Orense SC defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.62

Orense SC attack 1.05 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Deportivo Cuenca scores more

50%

level

25%

Orense SC scores more

25%

Deportivo Cuenca at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Deportivo Cuenca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'

Gabriel Corozo

49'

J. Vernaza

51'

Oscar Esteban Quinonez Mendoza

56'

M. Balda← L. Mancinelli

62'

S. Portocarrero← J. Kouffaty

63'

Hamilton Piedra

67'

Manu Balda

68'

L. Villagra↳ Gabriel Corozo

77'

José Andrade

77'

V. Branda← J. Almeida

77'

J. Andrade← A. Assis

77'

W. Godoy← J. Angulo

82'

Segundo Portocarrero

85'

M. Zambrano← J. Vernaza

85'

Galo Corozo← Gabriel Corozo

85'

E. Montaño← L. Villagra

Possession

Shots

Statistics

DeportivoOrense

Overview

49%Possession51%

8Total Shots4

5Corners2

7Fouls7

Shots

8Total Shots4

4On Target2

3Off Target2

Passing

49%Possession51%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

7Fouls7

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0