Deportivo Cuenca vs Mushuc Runa SC

Deportivo Cuenca

Preview

20:00

Mushuc Runa SC

8/23/2026

Liga Pro · Round 26Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar

Big match

45%

Deportivo Cuenca

model favours

45%28%27%

88% of Deportivo Cuenca’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–0

likely score

60%

under 2.5 goals

46%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Deportivo Cuenca45%

×Draw28%

Mushuc Runa SC27%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CuencaExpected goals in this matchMushuc Runa SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.97

Deportivo Cuenca

1.33

Mushuc Runa SC

0.97

Deportivo Cuenca creates 37% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

1.37

creates per match

0.85

1.09

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Deportivo Cuenca

1.37

Mushuc Runa SC

0.85

allows per match

Deportivo Cuenca

1.09

Mushuc Runa SC

1.28

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

+1.15scores more than expected

finishing

Deportivo Cuenca-0.15scores less

Mushuc Runa SC+1.15scores more

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cuenca ↓

Mushuc Runa SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Deportivo Cuenca or draw

73%

Deportivo Cuenca or Mushuc Runa SC

72%

Draw or Mushuc Runa SC

55%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+

21%

Mushuc Runa SC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals

74%

Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals

38%

Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals

15%

Mushuc Runa SC 1+ goals

62%

Mushuc Runa SC 2+ goals

25%

Mushuc Runa SC 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)

62%

Mushuc Runa SC (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cuenca at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.09 · 9 matches

Mushuc Runa SC away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.28 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cuenca attack 1.37 + Mushuc Runa SC defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.33

Mushuc Runa SC attack 0.85 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Deportivo Cuenca scores more

45%

level

28%

Mushuc Runa SC scores more

27%

Deportivo Cuenca at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Deportivo Cuenca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Deportivo Cuenca score first in only 25% of matches
Both teams score in only 31% of Deportivo Cuenca’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Deportivo Cuenca

Balanced

Mushuc Runa SC

Defensively solid

49%Possession46%

78%Pass accuracy70%

11.0Shots11.7

1.34xGBiggest gap1.03

Deportivo CuencaMushuc Runa SC

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

4

Deportivo Cuenca

2

Draws

4

Mushuc Runa SC

Avg goals: 2.8BTTS: 50%

1–41–01–31–15–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Cuenca

LDLLD

SC

WLLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff