Deportivo Cuenca 1–1 Macara: Result & Stats

Deportivo Cuenca

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Macara

D. Dorregaray 45+2' (pen)

J. Quiñonez 22' (OG)

10/26/2021

Liga Pro · 2nd Round - 11Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar Banco del Austro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Deportivo Cuenca41%

×Draw28%

Macara32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CuencaExpected goals in this matchMacara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.11

Deportivo Cuenca

1.29

Macara

1.11

Deportivo Cuenca creates 16% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

1.29

creates per match

1.10

1.12

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Deportivo Cuenca

1.29

Macara

1.10

allows per match

Deportivo Cuenca

1.12

Macara

1.30

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

+0.23scores more than expected

finishing

Deportivo Cuenca-0.15scores less

Macara+0.23scores more

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cuenca ↓

Macara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Deportivo Cuenca or draw

68%

Deportivo Cuenca or Macara

72%

Draw or Macara

59%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+

18%

Macara wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals

72%

Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals

37%

Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals

14%

Macara 1+ goals

67%

Macara 2+ goals

30%

Macara 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)

56%

Macara (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cuenca at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.12 · 7 matches

Macara away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.30 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cuenca attack 1.29 + Macara defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.29

Macara attack 1.10 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Deportivo Cuenca scores more

41%

level

28%

Macara scores more

32%

Deportivo Cuenca at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Deportivo Cuenca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

Jean Pena

22'

J. QuiñonezOwn goal

41'

Francisco Mera

43'

Fernando Mora

45+2'

D. DorregarayPenalty

49'

Luis Arce

50'

Joao Quinones

63'

J. Rodríguez← L. Arce

63'

M. Aguirre← F. Jourdan

72'

A. Burbano← R. Champang

73'

I. Zambrano← R. Garcés

80'

Matías Duffard

85'

F. Fernández← M. Duffard

90'

Luis Chicaiza

90+2'

Andy Burbano

90+2'

A. Naula← L. Chicaiza

90+1'

M. Montaño← A. Rodríguez

90+1'

J. Santacruz← S. Portocarrero

Possession

Shots

Statistics

DeportivoMacara

Overview

58%Possession42%

10Total Shots7

5Corners3

14Fouls20

Shots

10Total Shots7

6On Target2

4Off Target5

Passing

58%Possession42%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

14Fouls20

5Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

4Offsides1

Liga Pro: Deportivo Cuenca 1–1 Macara

Deportivo Cuenca and Macara drew 1-1 in Liga Pro on October 26, 2021.

Goals: J. Quiñonez (22' o.g.), D. Dorregaray (45+2' pen).

Deportivo Cuenca controlled possession (58%) and registered 10 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar Banco del Austro in Cuenca.

Deportivo Cuenca vs Macara — Liga Pro 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Statistics

Liga Pro: Deportivo Cuenca 1–1 Macara