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Deportivo Cuenca vs Libertad — Liga Pro 2026

Deportivo Cuenca
Deportivo Cuenca
Preview
20:00
Libertad
Libertad
9/6/2026Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 29Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar
Big match
56%
Deportivo Cuenca
model favours
56%24%20%

88% of Deportivo Cuenca’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Deportivo Cuenca56%
×Draw24%
Libertad20%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Cuenca
1.74
Libertad
0.94

Deportivo Cuenca creates 85% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

creates per match

Deportivo Cuenca
1.37
Libertad
0.79

allows per match

Deportivo Cuenca
1.09
Libertad
2.11

finishing

Deportivo Cuenca-0.15scores less
Libertad+0.09on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cuenca ↓

Libertad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Deportivo Cuenca or draw
80%
Deportivo Cuenca or Libertad
76%
Draw or Libertad
44%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+
31%
Libertad wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals
82%
Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals
52%
Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals
25%
Libertad 1+ goals
61%
Libertad 2+ goals
24%
Libertad 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)
73%
Libertad (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cuenca at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.09 · 9 matches

Libertad away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.11 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cuenca attack 1.37 + Libertad defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.74

Libertad attack 0.79 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Deportivo Cuenca scores more
56%
level
24%
Libertad scores more
20%

Deportivo Cuenca at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Deportivo Cuenca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Deportivo Cuenca score first in only 25% of matches
  • 73% of Libertad’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in only 31% of Deportivo Cuenca’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Deportivo Cuenca
Balanced
Libertad
Balanced
49%Possession47%
78%Pass accuracy75%
11.1Shots11.0
1.34xGBiggest gap1.20
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Deportivo CuencaLibertad

Head-to-head

8 previous meetings

3
Deportivo Cuenca
2
Draws
3
Libertad
Avg goals: 2.1BTTS: 50%
1–03–01–20–11–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Cuenca
LDLLD
Libertad
LWDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Deportivo Cuenca vs Libertad — Match Preview

Deportivo Cuenca face Libertad on September 6, 2026 in this Liga Pro fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Deportivo Cuenca host Libertad at Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.