Deportivo Cuenca 3–2 Independiente del Valle

Deportivo Cuenca

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Independiente del Valle

Raul Becerra 64', 38' (pen)

Pedro Larrea 58'

Alejandro Cabeza 40'

Efrén Mera 17'

2/10/2019

Liga Pro · Round 1Alejandro Serrano Aguilar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Deportivo Cuenca29%

×Draw26%

Independiente del Valle45%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CuencaExpected goals in this matchIndependiente del Valle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.44

Deportivo Cuenca

1.10

Independiente del Valle

1.44

Independiente del Valle creates 31% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

1.37

creates per match

1.78

1.09

allows per match

0.84

creates per match

Deportivo Cuenca

1.37

Independiente del Valle

1.78

allows per match

Deportivo Cuenca

1.09

Independiente del Valle

0.84

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Deportivo Cuenca-0.15scores less

Independiente del Valle+0.11scores more

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cuenca ↓

Independiente del Valle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Deportivo Cuenca or draw

55%

Deportivo Cuenca or Independiente del Valle

74%

Draw or Independiente del Valle

71%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+

11%

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals

67%

Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals

30%

Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals

10%

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

76%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

42%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)

39%

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cuenca at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.09 · 9 matches

Independiente del Valle away — creates 1.78, concedes 0.84 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cuenca attack 1.37 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.10

Independiente del Valle attack 1.78 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Deportivo Cuenca scores more

29%

level

26%

Independiente del Valle scores more

45%

Independiente del Valle at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

Efrén Mera

19'

Luis Luna

21'

Anthony Landazuri

38'

Raul BecerraPenalty

40'

Alejandro Cabeza↳ Anthony Landazuri

46'

Juan Govea← Anthony Landazuri

55'

Emmanuel Martínez

55'

Edison Preciado← Luis Escalada

57'

Sergio Ojeda

58'

Pedro Larrea↳ Emmanuel Martínez

63'

Jhon Rodrìguez← Jonny Uchuari

64'

Raul Becerra↳ Emmanuel Martínez

67'

Efrén Mera← Efrén Mera

71'

Luis Ayala← Luis Ayala

82'

Enzo Damian Maidana

87'

Anthony Bedoya Caicedo← Emmanuel Martínez

88'

Brian Heras

Possession

Shots

Statistics

DeportivoIndependiente

Overview

53%Possession47%

8Total Shots10

2Corners3

10Fouls20

Shots

8Total Shots10

4On Target3

4Off Target7

Passing

53%Possession47%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls20

4Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

2Offsides0