Deportivo Cuenca 3–2 Emelec: Result & Stats

Deportivo Cuenca

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Emelec

V. Branda 90+2'

R. Becerra 59', 29'

E. Lastre 50'

A. Cabeza 38'

6/18/2023

Liga Pro · 1st Round - 15Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar Banco del Austro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Deportivo Cuenca49%

×Draw26%

Emelec25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CuencaExpected goals in this matchEmelec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.96

Deportivo Cuenca

1.46

Emelec

0.96

Deportivo Cuenca creates 52% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

1.29

creates per match

0.80

1.12

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Deportivo Cuenca

1.29

Emelec

0.80

allows per match

Deportivo Cuenca

1.12

Emelec

1.63

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

Deportivo Cuenca-0.15scores less

Emelec+0.20scores more

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cuenca ↓

Emelec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Deportivo Cuenca or draw

75%

Deportivo Cuenca or Emelec

74%

Draw or Emelec

51%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+

24%

Emelec wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals

77%

Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals

43%

Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals

18%

Emelec 1+ goals

62%

Emelec 2+ goals

25%

Emelec 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)

66%

Emelec (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cuenca at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.12 · 7 matches

Emelec away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.63 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cuenca attack 1.29 + Emelec defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.46

Emelec attack 0.80 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Deportivo Cuenca scores more

49%

level

26%

Emelec scores more

25%

Deportivo Cuenca at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Deportivo Cuenca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

R. Becerra

Deportivo Cuenca · F

9.0

Match Events

27'

29'

38'

45'

45'

46'

46'

50'

E. Lastre↳ M. Bolaños

59'

R. Becerra↳ L. Mancinelli

64'

C. Villalba← C. Valencia

65'

71'

71'

78'

79'

79'

J. Alberti← J. Cevallos

83'

Brayan Angulo

83'

Brayan Angulo

88'

B. Wittle← M. Bolaños

90+2'

V. Branda↳ J. Almeida

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoEmelec

Overview

52%Possession48%

16Total Shots11

7Corners9

15Fouls12

Shots

16Total Shots11

8On Target4

6Off Target4

2Blocked3

10Inside Box8

6Outside Box3

Passing

52%Possession48%

374Total Passes354

308Accurate Passes282

82%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls12

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Deportivo Cuenca vs Emelec

Deportivo Cuenca beat Emelec 3-2 in Liga Pro on June 18, 2023.

Goals: R. Becerra (29', 59'), A. Cabeza (38'), E. Lastre (50'), V. Branda (90+2').

Deportivo Cuenca controlled possession (52%) and registered 16 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar Banco del Austro in Cuenca.

Deportivo Cuenca vs Emelec — Liga Pro 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Deportivo Cuenca vs Emelec