Deportivo Cuenca 0–1 Emelec: Result & Stats

Deportivo Cuenca

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Emelec

J. Rojas 63'

7/25/2021

Liga Pro · 2nd Round - 1Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar Banco del Austro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Deportivo Cuenca49%

×Draw26%

Emelec25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CuencaExpected goals in this matchEmelec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.96

Deportivo Cuenca

1.46

Emelec

0.96

Deportivo Cuenca creates 52% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

1.29

creates per match

0.80

1.12

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Deportivo Cuenca

1.29

Emelec

0.80

allows per match

Deportivo Cuenca

1.12

Emelec

1.63

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

Deportivo Cuenca-0.15scores less

Emelec+0.20scores more

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cuenca ↓

Emelec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Deportivo Cuenca or draw

75%

Deportivo Cuenca or Emelec

74%

Draw or Emelec

51%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+

24%

Emelec wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals

77%

Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals

43%

Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals

18%

Emelec 1+ goals

62%

Emelec 2+ goals

25%

Emelec 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)

66%

Emelec (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cuenca at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.12 · 7 matches

Emelec away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.63 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cuenca attack 1.29 + Emelec defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.46

Emelec attack 0.80 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Deportivo Cuenca scores more

49%

level

26%

Emelec scores more

25%

Deportivo Cuenca at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Deportivo Cuenca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

54'

63'

70'

71'

72'

73'

J. Cevallos← A. Cabeza

80'

F. Barcelo

81'

M. Posligua← C. Orejuela

83'

B. Carabalí← A. Zapata

85'

D. Pazmiño← L. Chicaiza

88'

J. Caicedo← J. Rojas

90'

J. Caicedo

Possession

Shots

Statistics

DeportivoEmelec

Overview

57%Possession43%

12Total Shots6

10Corners2

16Fouls16

Shots

12Total Shots6

5On Target2

7Off Target4

Passing

57%Possession43%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

16Fouls16

1Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

0Offsides3