Deportivo Cuenca 2–0 Cuniburo: Result & Stats

Deportivo Cuenca

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Cuniburo

L. Gustavino 45'

A. Rodriguez 35'

8/19/2025

Liga Pro · Round 25Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Deportivo Cuenca51%

×Draw25%

Cuniburo25%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CuencaExpected goals in this matchCuniburo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.06

Deportivo Cuenca

1.63

Cuniburo

1.06

Deportivo Cuenca creates 54% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 18 away

1.54

creates per match

1.00

1.11

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Deportivo Cuenca

1.54

Cuniburo

1.00

allows per match

Deportivo Cuenca

1.11

Cuniburo

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Cuenca+0.00on par

Cuniburo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cuenca ↓

Cuniburo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Deportivo Cuenca or draw

75%

Deportivo Cuenca or Cuniburo

75%

Draw or Cuniburo

49%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+

27%

Cuniburo wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals

80%

Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals

48%

Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals

22%

Cuniburo 1+ goals

65%

Cuniburo 2+ goals

29%

Cuniburo 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)

67%

Cuniburo (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cuenca at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.11 · 132 matches

Cuniburo away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cuenca attack 1.54 + Cuniburo defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.63

Cuniburo attack 1.00 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Deportivo Cuenca scores more

51%

level

25%

Cuniburo scores more

25%

Deportivo Cuenca at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Deportivo Cuenca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

L. Gustavino

Deportivo Cuenca · D

8.3

Match Events

21'

Christian Larotonda

35'

A. Rodriguez

44'

Ariel Mina

45'

L. Gustavino↳ L. Estupinan

46'

C. Luna Tobar← J. Chacon

63'

Mateo Maccari

66'

L. Mancinelli← J. Ordonez

66'

L. Arroyo← A. Rodriguez

72'

K. Coba← A. Aguirre

72'

K. Ushina← A. Mina

72'

A. Melo← C. Larotonda

72'

R. Monti← J. Lugo

74'

A. Lopez← M. Piedra

90'

S. Morocho← M. Maccari

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoCuniburo

Overview

56%Possession44%

14Total Shots6

1.71Expected Goals (xG)0.76

4Corners3

14Fouls8

Shots

14Total Shots6

4On Target0

8Off Target3

2Blocked3

9Inside Box3

5Outside Box3

Passing

56%Possession44%

486Total Passes385

414Accurate Passes310

85%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls8

1Yellow Cards2

5Offsides1