Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cuniburo vs Deportivo Cuenca — Liga Pro 2026

Cuniburo
Cuniburo
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Deportivo Cuenca
Deportivo Cuenca
L. Mancinelli 19'
4/26/2025Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 10Estadio Banco Guayaquil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Cuniburo45%
×Draw28%
Deportivo Cuenca27%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cuniburo
1.35
Deportivo Cuenca
0.98

Cuniburo creates 38% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 131 away

creates per match

Cuniburo
1.22
Deportivo Cuenca
0.85

allows per match

Cuniburo
1.11
Deportivo Cuenca
1.49

finishing

Cuniburo+0.00on par
Deportivo Cuenca+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cuniburo ↓

Deportivo Cuenca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cuniburo or draw
73%
Cuniburo or Deportivo Cuenca
72%
Draw or Deportivo Cuenca
55%

Winning margin

Cuniburo wins by 2+
21%
Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cuniburo 1+ goals
74%
Cuniburo 2+ goals
39%
Cuniburo 3+ goals
15%
Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals
62%
Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals
26%
Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Cuniburo (draw refunded)
62%
Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cuniburo at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

Deportivo Cuenca away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.49 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cuniburo attack 1.22 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.35

Deportivo Cuenca attack 0.85 + Cuniburo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cuniburo scores more
45%
level
28%
Deportivo Cuenca scores more
27%

Cuniburo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cuniburo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
L. GustavinoDeportivo CuencaDeportivo Cuenca · D
7.7

Match Events

19'
L. Mancinelli
37'
Alexis RodríguezPenalty cancelled
39'
Eugenio Raggio
48'
Christian Larotonda
65'
S. Caicedo← F. Mera
67'
M. Piedra← L. Estupinan
68'
L. Arroyo← A. Rodriguez
79'
N. Molina← K. Ushina
80'
I. Bailone← L. Mancinelli
88'
E. Guevara← A. Lopez

Possession

50%Cuniburo

Shots

12Cuniburo

Pass accuracy

49%Cuniburo

Statistics

CuniburoDeportivo
Overview
50%Possession50%
12Total Shots6
6Corners0
13Fouls8
Shots
12Total Shots6
3On Target3
6Off Target2
3Blocked1
9Inside Box3
3Outside Box3
Passing
50%Possession50%
421Total Passes446
330Accurate Passes361
78%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
13Fouls8
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides4

Match Recap: Cuniburo vs Deportivo Cuenca

Deportivo Cuenca beat Cuniburo 1-0 in Liga Pro on April 26, 2025.

Goals: L. Mancinelli (19').

Cuniburo controlled possession (50%) and registered 12 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estadio Banco Guayaquil in Quito.