Deportivo Cuenca 5–0 CD Olmedo: Result & Stats

Deportivo Cuenca

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

CD Olmedo

9/26/2021

Liga Pro · 2nd Round - 8Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar Banco del Austro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Deportivo Cuenca56%

×Draw22%

CD Olmedo22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CuencaExpected goals in this matchCD Olmedo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.13

Deportivo Cuenca

1.94

CD Olmedo

1.13

Deportivo Cuenca creates 72% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 45 away

1.55

creates per match

1.13

1.14

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Deportivo Cuenca

1.55

CD Olmedo

1.13

allows per match

Deportivo Cuenca

1.14

CD Olmedo

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Cuenca+0.00on par

CD Olmedo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cuenca ↓

CD Olmedo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Deportivo Cuenca or draw

78%

Deportivo Cuenca or CD Olmedo

78%

Draw or CD Olmedo

44%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+

33%

CD Olmedo wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals

86%

Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals

58%

Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals

30%

CD Olmedo 1+ goals

68%

CD Olmedo 2+ goals

31%

CD Olmedo 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)

72%

CD Olmedo (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cuenca at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.14 · 130 matches

CD Olmedo away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.33 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cuenca attack 1.55 + CD Olmedo defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.94

CD Olmedo attack 1.13 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Deportivo Cuenca scores more

56%

level

22%

CD Olmedo scores more

22%

Deportivo Cuenca at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Deportivo Cuenca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro: Deportivo Cuenca 5–0 CD Olmedo

Deportivo Cuenca beat CD Olmedo 5-0 in Liga Pro on September 26, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar Banco del Austro in Cuenca.

Deportivo Cuenca vs CD Olmedo — Liga Pro 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Liga Pro: Deportivo Cuenca 5–0 CD Olmedo